Edgar Fiedler, an American economist, noting how difficult it is to forecast the future, once remarked, “He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass”.
With that caveat in mind and wanting to avoid eating glass, we will have a stab at what employers can expect in 2024.
In no particular order, here’s what we predict:
Skills Shortages
The Boston Consult Group (“BCG”) released the 2023 version of its annual Creating People Advantage report, the result of a global survey of nearly 7,000 participants. Perhaps the most notable conclusion was that 72% of respondents stated that their top business challenge was responding to talent gaps and shortages.
South Africans participating in this survey agreed, though interestingly, at slightly lower rates compared with the global average (58% of respondents listed talent gaps as the biggest obstacle for their company).
We expected that South Africa would exceed the average, given the unique domestic challenges that impact skill shortages, most notably the recent spike in the emigration of tertiary education locals and the post-COVID trend of offshore employers looking to hire skilled South Africans to join their remote work community.
Very few, if any, employers are likely to escape the skill shortage challenge, but those who manage to overcome it in 2024 will seemingly have a significant competitive advantage.
The rise of AI
Unsurprisingly, the BCG report concluded that the second biggest challenge currently facing employers was digital transformation and innovation.
2023 saw rapid increases in the adoption of AI-based tools, and there seems to be no reason why that trend will not continue into 2024. Savvy employers should explore which AI-enabled technologies are best for them and ensure they have the internal skills and resources to use that technology.
In the people management space, there is a clear need for organisational policies outlining the responsible use of AI and implementing AI in their own function to leverage its benefits.
Our request for 2024 is an end to the growing trend of employees using AI tech to write their workplace grievances – it can be very difficult to pinpoint the true nature of a grievance when it’s presented as a word salad.
Back to the office?
Very few pundits would suggest that we will all return to traditional offices in 2024 – the flexibility of remote work seems here to stay.
That said, one likely challenge for employers in 2024 is how to bring employees back to the office when needed, and many organisations will need to rethink how to use their office space and how to maximise the employee’s experience of office-based work.
What is certain is that employers who apply strict rules about office attendance are likely to meet significant resistance and will find that their efforts to fill skills gaps become even harder.
We also expect that 2024 will see new ideas and innovations relating to onboarding remote workers who are new to the team. Employers have often bemoaned the challenges of embedding workplace culture for employees who have limited physical interactions with their colleagues, and this issue is a “must-fix” for many employers in 2024.
Political Uncertainty
National elections in the U.S, South Africa, the United Kingdom and India (Time magazine estimates that half the people on the globe may participate in a national election in 2024) are likely to cause delays in investment and expansion for many employers, who historically have played a “wait and see game” during elections.
When future government policy is uncertain (which admittedly is most of the time in South Africa), the appetite for large employers to commit to new projects will likely be stifled. Regrettably, this does not bode well for positive changes to unemployment rates.
Employment equity
Locally, “designated” employers will need to continue to prepare for the sectoral targets released in draft form by the Department of Employment & Labour (“DOEL”) last year and for all new amendments to the Employment Equity Act 1998 to come into force (the President signed the Employment Equity Amendment Act 2022 into law on 14 April 2023 but it has yet to be proclaimed).
2024 is likely to end with “small employers” (less than 50 employees) no longer needing to comply with the obligations of being a designated employer, while larger employers will need to determine how they can meet sectoral numerical targets or what they can say in explanation for not doing so. Furthermore, many employers must also ascertain how they can qualify for an employment equity compliance certificate from the DOEL.
In the dynamic landscape of 2024, employers face challenges from skill shortages to the rise of AI. We are here to help you navigate these complexities. For more details about how we can assist you and your business, contact us here.